It is well known that standard frequentist inference breaks down in IV regressions with weak instruments. Bayesian inference with diffuse priors suffers from the same problem. We show that the issue ...

A collaboration including the University of Oxford, University of British Columbia, Intel, New York University, CERN, and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center is working to make it ...

The FDA’s new draft guidance on Bayesian methodology signals a shift toward more flexible, data-driven clinical trial designs, enabling sponsors to use prior data and adaptive approaches to improve ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract We review recent developments in applying Bayesian probabilistic and statistical ideas to expert systems. Using a real, moderately complex, ...

Many organisms can predict future events from the statistics of past experience, but humans also excel at making predictions by pure reasoning: integrating multiple sources of information, guided by ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...