The world is full of uncertainty: accidents, storms, unruly financial markets, noisy communications. The world is also full of data. Probabilistic modeling and the related field of statistical ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

What Is A Probabilistic Model? A probabilistic model is a statistical tool that accounts for randomness or uncertainty when predicting future events. Instead of giving a definitive answer, it ...

ABSTRACT A Bayesian uncertainty analysis of 12 parameters of the Bern2.5D climate model is presented. This includes an extensive sensitivity study with respect to the major statistical assumptions.

The ability to characterize uncertainties explicitly is a feature unique to this model. As many as one hundred input parameters can be assigned probability distributions. When input parameters are ...

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Internal inspection of pipelines is not always economic, prompting development of methods for assessing a pipeline’s current condition based on historic operating and process conditions. Modeling the ...